I’ve analyzed my results from the past 17 months, concerning the lottery.
I devised a way to measure how “close” I get to the winning numbers. My formula for measuring this “closeness” is somewhat arbitrary, but there is no correct formula, so it works as good as any. In calculating the odds, I measure the “closeness” of all possible tickets - then see how many tickets are just as “close” as my ticket.
For the curious programmers, you can see my C program for measuring “closeness” here: Lottery Score Calculator Source Code
And for the results of my drawings:
Date | Winning Ticket | My Ticket |Close | Odds ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= Jul 11 08 | 05 14 16 39 51 [34] | 06 13 28 31 50 [33] | 212 | 1 in 14.417 Jul 08 08 | 01 20 22 29 41 [35] | 11 14 25 28 44 [13] | 639 | 1 in 2.637 Jul 08 08 | 01 20 22 29 41 [35] | 08 19 24 33 49 [11] | 710 | 1 in 2.338 Jul 04 08 | 01 03 12 19 20 [28] | 18 20 21 38 40 [19] | 1501 | 1 in 3.430 Jul 01 08 | 01 22 33 43 52 [36] | 09 25 31 41 44 [15] | 586 | 1 in 2.633 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= Jun 27 08 | 08 14 22 39 50 [44] | 05 08 12 19 47 [40] | 570 | 1 in 3.329 Jun 13 08 | 08 09 14 38 44 [36] | 09 13 27 30 49 [01] | 1500 | 1 in 1.291 Jun 10 08 | 03 05 15 43 51 [11] | 04 26 29 47 48 [35] | 1239 | 1 in 1.673 Jun 03 08 | 04 19 24 32 54 [05] | 02 31 36 39 44 [25] | 841 | 1 in 2.188 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= May 27 08 | 14 24 32 45 49 [17] | 05 24 30 35 54 [07] | 310 | 1 in 4.717 May 23 08 | 04 08 11 22 30 [04] | 23 29 34 39 40 [14] | 1820 | 1 in 2.000 May 20 08 | 02 14 26 32 41 [32] | 14 29 30 31 41 [09] | 915 | 1 in 1.531 May 16 08 | 06 11 39 46 47 [26] | 11 17 28 48 55 [38] | 394 | 1 in 5.940 May 13 08 | 20 24 27 31 47 [15] | 12 22 32 39 48 [38] | 687 | 1 in 2.346 May 09 08 | 16 31 43 46 56 [22] | 08 29 32 34 50 [25] | 378 | 1 in 6.152 May 06 08 | 04 21 46 53 54 [26] | 18 20 21 45 53 [32] | 923 | 1 in 2.211 May 02 08 | 08 28 37 53 55 [26] | 08 17 20 27 35 [33] | 1535 | 1 in 1.241 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= Apr 29 08 | 19 24 35 44 51 [26] | 19 24 34 40 55 [11] | 258 | 1 in 8.194 Apr 29 08 | 19 24 35 44 51 [26] | 19 24 34 40 55 [11] | 258 | 1 in 8.194 Apr 29 08 | 19 24 35 44 51 [26] | 19 24 34 40 55 [11] | 258 | 1 in 8.194 Apr 25 08 | 19 32 37 45 52 [41] | 08 12 13 25 51 [04] | 2867 | 1 in 1.055 Apr 22 08 | 03 22 31 48 54 [09] | 22 27 33 35 39 [06] | 793 | 1 in 2.164 Apr 22 08 | 03 22 31 48 54 [09] | 22 27 33 35 39 [06] | 793 | 1 in 2.164 Apr 18 08 | 24 28 36 50 53 [29] | 10 15 28 37 51 [18] | 723 | 1 in 2.785 Apr 04 08 | 03 05 40 45 49 [17] | 21 22 29 42 50 [10] | 793 | 1 in 2.717 Apr 01 08 | 04 17 26 46 56 [25] | 06 18 29 44 52 [27] | 38 | 1 in 1091.2 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= Mar 28 08 | 07 26 27 40 43 [10] | 03 15 37 47 56 [42] | 1479 | 1 in 1.149 Mar 25 08 | 38 42 43 48 53 [12] | 09 13 36 41 42 [02] | 2001 | 1 in 2.405 Mar 21 08 | 05 08 17 19 41 [21] | 05 12 18 23 45 [03] | 373 | 1 in 8.060 Mar 14 08 | 03 12 18 25 52 [21] | 08 17 20 46 55 [24] | 513 | 1 in 3.747 Mar 11 08 | 04 13 35 41 47 [44] | 11 18 22 25 33 [25] | 1056 | 1 in 1.881 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= Feb 22 08 | 07 12 13 19 22 [10] | 12 25 39 47 49 [13] | 2392 | 1 in 1.537 Feb 22 08 | 07 12 13 19 22 [10] | 21 22 23 43 49 [19] | 1782 | 1 in 2.249 Feb 22 08 | 07 12 13 19 22 [10] | 06 28 30 36 56 [41] | 2952 | 1 in 1.258 Feb 22 08 | 07 12 13 19 22 [10] | 15 18 44 46 54 [26] | 3070 | 1 in 1.221 Feb 22 08 | 07 12 13 19 22 [10] | 03 20 41 45 47 [28] | 2489 | 1 in 1.473 Feb 19 08 | 01 38 42 55 56 [34] | 02 15 35 43 49 [21] | 941 | 1 in 4.010 Feb 15 08 | 07 11 26 30 53 [14] | 13 14 21 35 44 [15] | 177 | 1 in 21.145 Feb 12 08 | 14 27 39 47 50 [12] | 13 16 27 28 31 [17] | 1013 | 1 in 1.689 Feb 08 08 | 21 30 43 46 50 [18] | 14 18 27 33 55 [09] | 724 | 1 in 2.696 Feb 05 08 | 04 05 17 40 51 [38] | 14 25 44 49 51 [06] | 2334 | 1 in 1.083 Feb 01 08 | 03 14 30 44 56 [05] | 01 16 38 47 55 [07] | 86 | 1 in 140.58 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= Jan 29 08 | 08 23 39 40 42 [24] | 12 16 29 30 44 [08] | 525 | 1 in 2.703 Jan 25 08 | 05 12 22 38 56 [22] | 04 05 16 19 54 [27] | 476 | 1 in 3.080 Jan 22 08 | 12 15 22 25 33 [02] | 07 09 18 32 34 [44] | 1891 | 1 in 1.429 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= Dec 18 07 | 03 23 46 48 49 [02] | 08 14 22 34 35 [39] | 2443 | 1 in 1.171 Dec 14 07 | 04 07 12 17 30 [44] | 05 17 33 35 46 [21] | 1651 | 1 in 2.677 Dec 11 07 | 06 25 27 30 45 [46] | 10 19 22 26 34 [11] | 1439 | 1 in 1.535 Dec 11 07 | 06 25 27 30 45 [46] | 12 17 31 48 51 [09] | 1845 | 1 in 1.266 Dec 07 07 | 12 18 26 28 51 [35] | 09 11 29 47 50 [04] | 1390 | 1 in 1.172 Dec 04 07 | 16 27 30 45 53 [43] | 04 05 24 32 54 [08] | 2059 | 1 in 1.134 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= Nov 27 07 | 09 10 26 29 39 [10] | 03 08 26 35 50 [21] | 318 | 1 in 7.467 Nov 23 07 | 18 21 33 42 56 [11] | 07 18 25 37 46 [40] | 1160 | 1 in 1.423 Nov 02 07 | 01 03 34 49 52 [19] | 08 11 25 29 31 [36] | 1324 | 1 in 1.414 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= Oct 30 07 | 02 08 44 46 51 [22] | 09 11 17 50 54 [07] | 1037 | 1 in 1.839 Oct 26 07 | 12 20 24 38 51 [03] | 30 37 41 43 45 [15] | 1107 | 1 in 1.689 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= Sep 21 07 | 05 21 23 33 45 [43] | 06 29 32 43 51 [20] | 811 | 1 in 2.244 Sep 18 07 | 20 24 31 34 49 [08] | 14 23 25 31 43 [04] | 134 | 1 in 46.383 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= Aug 31 07 | 08 18 22 40 44 [11] | 01 08 10 39 56 [44] | 1527 | 1 in 1.107 Aug 28 07 | 37 40 48 53 56 [44] | 01 04 25 49 50 [21] | 3702 | 1 in 1.358 Aug 24 07 | 04 21 46 51 53 [05] | 21 24 29 47 49 [09] | 635 | 1 in 5.421 Aug 21 07 | 08 38 54 55 56 [02] | 06 22 32 34 40 [33] | 2402 | 1 in 1.804 Aug 17 07 | 02 08 33 38 53 [12] | 16 31 39 45 52 [12] | 811 | 1 in 2.027 Aug 14 07 | 05 08 09 24 34 [17] | 06 08 13 55 56 [03] | 1658 | 1 in 1.595 Aug 10 07 | 10 20 32 33 54 [39] | 21 26 30 37 49 [40] | 203 | 1 in 16.396 Aug 07 07 | 36 41 50 55 56 [09] | 05 13 40 42 51 [04] | 2064 | 1 in 2.895 Aug 03 07 | 16 29 42 46 51 [40] | 01 08 18 24 44 [22] | 2099 | 1 in 1.182 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= Jul 31 07 | 05 18 37 39 43 [42] | 09 18 21 37 53 [16] | 1052 | 1 in 1.754 Jul 27 07 | 07 12 35 54 55 [02] | 15 26 33 34 56 [20] | 989 | 1 in 2.880 Jul 06 07 | 03 09 12 25 47 [37] | 12 32 34 40 43 [10] | 2064 | 1 in 1.237 Jul 06 07 | 03 09 12 25 47 [37] | 25 32 34 40 43 [10] | 2467 | 1 in 1.135 Jul 06 07 | 03 09 12 25 47 [37] | 05 12 32 34 43 [10] | 1239 | 1 in 1.883 Jul 06 07 | 03 09 12 25 47 [37] | 05 25 32 34 43 [10] | 1486 | 1 in 1.574 Jul 06 07 | 03 09 12 25 47 [37] | 12 32 34 40 43 [36] | 1336 | 1 in 1.744 Jul 06 07 | 03 09 12 25 47 [37] | 25 32 34 40 43 [36] | 1739 | 1 in 1.383 Jul 06 07 | 03 09 12 25 47 [37] | 05 12 32 34 43 [36] | 511 | 1 in 5.419 Jul 06 07 | 03 09 12 25 47 [37] | 05 25 32 34 43 [36] | 758 | 1 in 3.258 Jul 06 07 | 03 09 12 25 47 [37] | 12 32 34 40 43 [35] | 1339 | 1 in 1.740 Jul 06 07 | 03 09 12 25 47 [37] | 25 32 34 40 43 [35] | 1742 | 1 in 1.381 Jul 06 07 | 03 09 12 25 47 [37] | 05 12 32 34 43 [35] | 514 | 1 in 5.380 Jul 06 07 | 03 09 12 25 47 [37] | 05 25 32 34 43 [35] | 761 | 1 in 3.243 Jul 03 07 | 21 35 37 39 40 [35] | 05 14 19 39 40 [08] | 1750 | 1 in 1.266 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= Jun 29 07 | 01 17 40 51 52 [07] | 06 14 19 23 24 [14] | 2092 | 1 in 1.154 Jun 26 07 | 04 10 20 29 45 [21] | 06 19 38 40 48 [05] | 795 | 1 in 1.702 Jun 22 07 | 11 14 21 24 31 [23] | 14 22 35 45 51 [37] | 1306 | 1 in 1.504 Jun 19 07 | 05 16 31 49 54 [19] | 02 31 34 41 47 [36] | 645 | 1 in 2.117 Jun 15 07 | 01 05 16 26 30 [21] | 11 15 17 24 33 [45] | 790 | 1 in 3.564 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= May 11 07 | 28 30 33 48 54 [25] | 01 09 30 39 42 [45] | 1804 | 1 in 1.227 May 08 07 | 16 24 41 43 54 [36] | 18 32 43 51 56 [40] | 156 | 1 in 28.644 May 04 07 | 04 09 20 45 55 [34] | 08 09 16 36 41 [12] | 793 | 1 in 2.280 May 04 07 | 04 09 20 45 55 [34] | 06 18 30 50 53 [05] | 1055 | 1 in 1.650 May 01 07 | 11 16 31 52 53 [42] | 03 19 31 37 51 [20] | 786 | 1 in 2.685 May 01 07 | 11 16 31 52 53 [42] | 04 09 17 32 52 [45] | 704 | 1 in 3.070 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= Apr 27 07 | 05 07 26 38 56 [15] | 09 32 40 45 47 [29] | 1163 | 1 in 1.353 Apr 27 07 | 05 07 26 38 56 [15] | 14 35 37 42 51 [14] | 1028 | 1 in 1.502 Apr 24 07 | 08 10 35 36 43 [14] | 13 18 35 44 52 [36] | 718 | 1 in 1.976 Apr 24 07 | 08 10 35 36 43 [14] | 01 12 27 30 35 [37] | 746 | 1 in 1.895 Apr 06 07 | 24 32 34 36 39 [06] | 07 18 22 49 53 [05] | 995 | 1 in 2.885 Apr 03 07 | 16 26 33 34 46 [38] | 07 09 23 30 44 [30] | 554 | 1 in 3.162 ==========+=====================+=====================+======+============= Mar 30 07 | 15 23 37 48 53 [22] | 05 10 25 29 43 [39] | 1163 | 1 in 1.280 Mar 27 07 | 18 25 34 35 42 [06] | 13 35 38 42 52 [24] | 614 | 1 in 3.504 Mar 23 07 | 18 21 35 51 53 [36] | 07 18 32 35 51 [14] | 883 | 1 in 2.027 Mar 20 07 | 07 21 46 49 55 [15] | 08 11 21 29 33 [15] | 1610 | 1 in 1.282 Mar 16 07 | 17 25 36 40 43 [09] | 01 05 06 07 08 [03] | 3906 | 1 in 1.000 Mar 16 07 | 17 25 36 40 43 [09] | 02 15 31 49 51 [23] | 691 | 1 in 2.478 Mar 13 07 | 07 11 16 38 49 [35] | 03 19 23 33 34 [31] | 395 | 1 in 4.716
I’ve highlighted three of my best results. Of particular interest is the drawing that scored 1 in 1091. The winning numbers were 04 17 26 46 56 [25], and I picked 06 18 29 44 52 [27]. So close! 
As you can see, a lot of my drawings are crap. But it’s those few gems that are so amazingly close, that it’s impossible to ignore.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:10 am
Do you pick your numbers or just get the computer to randomize a set for you?
July 18th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
My friend just sent me a the link to your ver3.0 post. interesting stuff. I have a question about lottery numbers though..i wonder what your reasoning is to pick different numbers each time, rather than play the same numbers and know that the numbers announced match the ones you play, rather than trying to pick something ‘now’ to match something that hasn’t happened ‘yet’. It would seem to me if part of the equation is intending or knowing, “i am holding the winning lottery ticket,” then you could let the universe/random chance synchronize with your constant numbers rather than having two changing sets of numbers try to find each other.
i do admit when i play the numbers lotteries (rather than scratch off) i don’t play the same numbers all the time…and it has been awhile since i played. though i vividly remember a story probably 12 or more years ago in VA where the couple that won big always choose the same numbers and one day theirs were drawn.
just wondering your thoughts,
July 18th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Well thats the general theory based on a misunderstanding of probability..
By playing the same numbers every game you’d imagine you have a better chance of getting your numbers pulled, because probability shouldn’t favor those numbers that have already come up. However because each drawing is completely random yours odds are always technically the same for any set of numbers you choose, even if they’ve won before.
In theory your numbers will come up eventually but theres no assurance that it happens before every other combination has appeared 100 times as a winner.
July 20th, 2008 at 12:16 am
“though i vividly remember a story probably 12 or more years ago in VA where the couple that won big always choose the same numbers and one day theirs were drawn.”
sooner or later someone has to win the lottery. regardless of who it is that wins, their bound to have some sort of story. but then there are all the other people who would have the same story, but have never won.
in other words, just because someone won playing a certain way doesn’t mean that way is any more/less favorable than anything else.
July 24th, 2008 at 7:27 pm
I had someone come into the store that I work at and ask if anyone had won big in it recently. Nobody had, so the person who asked said (rather loudly) “Then I’m not checking my ticket here.”
I laughed because it isn’t going to make a difference where the guy checks the ticket since the numbers have already been drawn.
August 10th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
How about instead of trying to win at the lottery do something more definite. Such as aplying to the million dollar challenge and just show some TK or something. Then you’ll actually get the million $ and can fund your original idea in order to figure out the lottery thing.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:41 am
this would probably be the main reason for not doing the challenge.
http://www.psipog.net/art-beware-pseudo-skepticism.html
August 13th, 2008 at 5:34 am
kk then thanks for that clarification!