This is a continuation of ideas from my last post on randomness…
Let’s assume you look at someone winning the lottery twice, and you have the same reaction that I do: there’s no way our current model correctly predicts it happening. Now I notice a lot of people in the previous post don’t have that reaction :-P. I’ll attempt to address people’s complaints, but also move along at the same time.
There are a few problems that spring up if we say that randomness doesn’t exist. The idea of randomness is essential to the field of probability and statistics. It’s also essential to Quantum Physics, where matter phases out into a “probability-cloud” that acts as a wave-form when not being observed. Mad Hatter made the observation that if randomness doesn’t exist, then reality is deterministic - and we have no free will.
There is a solution to these problems though. What if, where we perceive randomness, what actually exists is a conscious choice?
Probability and statistics are still useful. They just model choice instead of random behavior. Quantum Physics is still correct - but it just means that when matter phases out of existence, it just hasn’t chosen where to exist yet. And free will still exists, because everything is now free will! 
So my current understanding is that, where we perceive randomness, what we’re really perceiving is a choice that we don’t understand completely.
Think of a hypothetical situation: imagine that I’m paralyzed, and all I can control is my blinking. Now imagine that you come to see me, and you are absolutely convinced that I’m a machine. You believe you are looking at a complicated clock. Perhaps I try to communicate with you by blinking letters of the alphabet… maybe using morse code. I painstakingly spell out “Hey Jimmy, how’s the wife and kids?” What do you perceive?
You will see me blinking, but you’ll think it’s just random movement. You can watch my blinking, and figure out the “probability” that I’ll blink or not. You might declare that “This machine has a 0.476 chance of blinking at any given second” - and that might true. But because of your belief that my blinking is inherently random, you miss the message.
A strange analogy… but that’s what I think is happening. We witness seemingly random events, and sure - we can calculate the odds of that event happening, and we can study it, and analyze it, and make great models. But so long as we believe that the event itself is inherently random - we are stuck. If randomness exists, then that means events are meaningless.
If we replace the idea of randomness with conscious choice, then everything has meaning. Things fall into place.
Perhaps you disagree with me :-P. Or perhaps you think it’s interesting, but haven’t made up your mind. Either way, that’s fine. This is only my current understanding - there’s a good chance the more I think about it, the more this will change as well :-P.
“God does not play dice with the universe.” - Albert Einstein
May 21st, 2007 at 1:07 pm
http://www.xkcd.com/c137.html
May 21st, 2007 at 7:03 pm
That’s an interesting view… I’ve never quite thought about it that way. I’ll have to sleep on that, that’s really good brain food.
May 21st, 2007 at 7:33 pm
VERY NICE once again.
I am understanding this more and more and you are making much more sense with me.
That example really cleared things up A LOT!
PLEASE post more on your thoughts about this. I enjoy reading about this topic.
Thank you,
- hotfoot982
May 21st, 2007 at 10:48 pm
Hey there! A few months ago, a thought everything related to psychic abilities was completely crazy, then I started reading PsiPog articles and tried out that card exercise where you keep shuffling until you think the card is on top…it worked for me the first time. Since then, I really do not believe probability is real anymore. I do agree with you and I’ll try keeping this in everyday stuff, I’m sure I’ll get nice results.
Keep writing amazing articles!
May 21st, 2007 at 11:32 pm
Good thoughts Sean.
It’s actually amazing to think that behind every single event, there is some sort of meaning..
But I think you could be on the right track.
Even in my life, (and I’m sure in just about everyone’s lives) there have been too many times when out of the blue I thought of someone whom I haven’t seen in years, and I see them later that day.
The fact that the universe is nonrandom could also help explain psychic phenomenon, I suppose.
Very interesting stuff.
May 21st, 2007 at 11:40 pm
I agree with the thoughts of randomness having a message that we may miss. It reminds me of a book called The Way of Wyrd in which a shaman saw a couple of birds flying around and determined that a warrior dies that night. great post ^_^
May 22nd, 2007 at 11:02 am
Sorry Sean, I just can’t agree with you. I know that at some times, probability can seem non existant. But you will figure it out when you don’t win the lottery. A few coincidences out of many don’t change the odds. For example. If I flip a coin and get 2 heads and 1 tails, this does not mean that randomness doesn’t exist or that it can be baised by the person who flips the coin. The laws of experimental probability (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency_%28statistics%29)states that, the more results you get the closer you get to the empirical value. This means that if the man who one the lottery two times in a row still has the same amount of chance of getting another ticket. If he played the same lotter for say a few hundred years, he might win again, but because of the number of trials and errors the chance of him winning would come closer to the empiracle value.
But the problem with the lottery is that it is not perfectly random. One reason is because the winning ticket might not even be in the same state. many times the ticket might be somewhere else. Assuming you had full access to all the stores that sold lottery tickets of your choosing you chances of winning then would be at the same rate as the statistics show. On top of that, the people who send the tickets to one place might choose to send it there due to convinence. Say the delivery guy lives near by a gas station and a good football game is on but the tickets have to be delivered some where.
The same problem exists when flipping a quarter, the engravings can slightly manipulate air. At a fast toss this might change the results slightly.
June 1st, 2007 at 6:16 pm
I agree with you about randomness. There is no possible root for randomness. Maybe that is why people call it randomness. Maybe humans call it randomness because they really don’t know its alleged roots. Nothing is random. Coin tossing is determined by the exact location of the air atoms and by the force with which the coin was thrown. If you get a machine that tosses coins exactly the same way in a controlled environment, the coin will always fall on the same side. I disagree with NeoPsychic for the lone reason that he disagrees with himself. The fact that a coin is fatter than the other proves that randomness doesn’t exist in that case. He also says the winning ticket depends on where the delivery man places it. That isn’t random either. It is determined by the circumstance under which the mailman is in. “Random” thoughts get stimulated by some impulse we get, triggering some memory or thought. Using Sean’s theory of the pond and your thoughts being ripples, the ripples can’t get there without you placing them there. That disproves the probability of random thoughts.